49ers at FalconsSUNDAY 10 AM · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
No Week 7 practice report yet (San Francisco played Monday night, so its first report comes later in the week). ESPN's injury feed for this game (fetched Wed Oct 21) lists for San Francisco: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, hamstring) and Garret Wallow (LB, hamstring) OUT; Nick Bosa (DE, calf), Upton Stout (CB, AC joint) and Marques Sigle (S, ankle) QUESTIONABLE. DraftKings Network (Oct 20) adds Mike Evans as TBD with Achilles tendinitis and ribs after he aggravated the Achilles Monday and played two quarters; Shanahan: "hopefully he'll be able to play." Bosa has missed the past four games. Shanahan on Samuel and Robinson: he would be surprised to have either back before the Week 8 bye.
Atlanta's side: ESPN lists C.J. Henderson (CB, groin; inactive Week 6), Kendal Daniels (LB, neck), Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, hamstring) and Divine Deablo (LB, arm) as questionable, Yasir Abdullah on IR. Daniels was carted off against Chicago and taken to Grady Memorial; the team said he was alert with movement in all extremities. CB A.J. Terrell Jr. is on IR (DraftKings Network, Oct 20).
Sources: ESPN game-summary injury feed for event 401873017 (fetched Oct 21); DraftKings Network Week 7 injury report (Oct 20); 49erswebzone.com (Oct 12). Re-check after Thursday's practice reports.
Player matchups ESPN season statistics, depth charts and injury feed, pulled Oct 21 (six games each)
Purdy vs. Atlanta's secondary
Edge: 49ers
49ers
Brock Purdy — 119/171, 1,460 yds, 14 TD, 2 INT, 118.1 rating, 8.5 a throw
Falcons
Jessie Bates III 31 tackles, 2 PD, fumble-return TD · S 
Xavier Watts 38 tackles, 1 INT · CB 
Mike Hughes 32 tackles, 3 PD · CB 
C.J. Henderson 6 PD QUESTIONABLE (groin) · NB 
Sydney BrownPurdy is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes and second only to Lamar Jackson in rating. Atlanta has one interception as a team in six games (Watts has it) and 28 passes defended. Henderson, its leader in passes defended, was inactive in Week 6 and A.J. Terrell Jr. is on IR (DraftKings Network, Oct 20). Clearest edge on the page.
Mike Evans and Kittle vs. a thin Atlanta corner group
Edge: 49ers49ers
Mike Evans 27 rec, 420 yds, 3 TD (Achilles tendinitis, ribs — status TBD) · TE 
George Kittle 26 rec, 337 yds, 5 TD · WR 
Brandin Cooks · WR 
Deebo Samuel Sr. OUT (hamstring) · WR 
Demarcus Robinson IRFalconsMike Hughes · CB 
Avieon Terrell 11 tackles · NB 
Billy Bowman Jr. QUESTIONABLE (hamstring) · LB 
Divine Deablo QUESTIONABLE (arm)Evans is the swing: he aggravated the Achilles Monday and played two quarters; Shanahan said "hopefully he'll be able to play" (ESPN via DraftKings Network, Oct 20). Samuel is out and Shanahan expects him back after the Week 8 bye at the earliest. Even without Evans, Kittle's five touchdowns against two questionable Atlanta linebackers keep this in San Francisco's column.
Bijan Robinson vs. Fred Warner and the 49ers' run defense
Edge: Falcons49ers
Fred Warner 58 tackles, 3 FF · LB 
Dre Greenlaw 37 tackles (back from suspension) · LB 
Jaden Dugger 28 · DT 
Gracen Halton 5 TFL · LB 
Garret Wallow OUT (hamstring)Falcons
Bijan Robinson — 111 car, 641 yds (5.8), 4 TD; 20 rec, 144 yds · RB 
Brian Robinson Jr. 53 car, 211 yds, 4 TDAtlanta runs for 149.5 yards a game at 5.1 a carry, and Bijan is averaging 106.8 a game with seven of ESPN's big plays. San Francisco's run game is 21 yards a game behind it. This is how Atlanta stays close: Robinson on the ground and Purdy watching from the sideline.
Penix vs. the 49ers' secondary
Even49ers
Renardo Green 3 INT, 5 PD · CB 
Deommodore Lenoir · NB 
Upton Stout QUESTIONABLE (shoulder) · S 
Ji'Ayir Brown 39 tackles · S 
Marques Sigle QUESTIONABLE (high ankle sprain) · S 
Malik Mustapha 3 PDFalcons
Michael Penix Jr. — 71/110, 944 yds, 6 TD, 1 INT, 106.0 rating in four games · backups 
Tua Tagovailoa, 
Cooper Rush (1 TD, 4 INT in two games)Penix averages 8.6 yards an attempt, third among the league's leading passers, and has thrown one interception in 110 attempts. Green has all three of San Francisco's interceptions. With Stout and Sigle both questionable, the 49ers may start Mustapha at strong safety. Penix visited the medical tent in the first quarter against Chicago and finished the game (DraftKings Network, Oct 20).
Drake London vs. Lenoir and Green
Edge: Falcons49ersDeommodore Lenoir 24 tackles · CB Renardo Green 3 INT · CB 
Jack Jones 3 PDFalcons
Drake London — 31 rec, 550 yds (17.7 a catch), 91.7 a game, long 68 · WR 
Jahan Dotson · WR 
Zachariah Branch 9 rec, 55 ydsLondon is Atlanta's whole passing game: 550 yards, nine ESPN big plays and 17.7 a catch; Pitts is next at 169. Green's three picks make it closer, but London is the best receiver on the field if Evans is limited.
49ers' pass rush vs. Atlanta's protection
Edge: 49ers49ers
Keion White 3.5 sacks · DT 
Osa Odighizuwa 2 · DT Gracen Halton 2 · DE 
Romello Height 1.5 · DE 
Mykel Williams 1 · DE 
Nick Bosa QUESTIONABLE (calf; missed the past four games)Falcons
Jake Matthews · LG 
Matthew Bergeron · C 
Ryan Neuzil · RG 
Chris Lindstrom · RT 
Jawaan Taylor — 16 sacks allowed, 97 ydsAtlanta has allowed 16 sacks; Penix goes down on 7.6% of dropbacks, 21st of 32 leading passers. San Francisco has 15 sacks without Bosa for most of the season, spread across a rotation. If Bosa returns after missing four games, this widens.
Atlanta's pass rush vs. the 49ers' line
Edge: 49ers49ers
Trent Williams · LG 
Connor Colby · C 
Jake Brendel · RG 
Dominick Puni · RT 
Colton McKivitz — 5 sacks allowed, 29 ydsFalcons
Za'Darius Smith 3.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL · OLB 
Samson Ebukam 2.5 · OLB 
Cameron Thomas 2 · NT 
Gervon Dexter Sr. 1.5 · DE 
Brandon Dorlus 1San Francisco has allowed five sacks all season; Purdy's 2.8% sack rate is second-lowest among leading passers. Atlanta also has 15 sacks, led by Smith. Big edge to the 49ers' line.
McCaffrey vs. Atlanta's inside linebackers
Edge: 49ers49ers
Christian McCaffrey 77 car, 350 yds (4.5), 7 TD; 28 rec, 190 yds · RB 
Kaelon Black 45 car, 170 yds · FB 
Kyle JuszczykFalcons
Kendal Daniels 29 tackles, 4 TFL QUESTIONABLE (neck) · LB Divine Deablo 30 tackles QUESTIONABLE (arm) · LB 
Harold Perkins Jr. 23 tacklesDaniels was carted off against Chicago and taken to hospital (alert, with movement in all his extremities, the team said); Deablo left in the first half. If both sit, Perkins and Josh Woods have the middle against McCaffrey, who leads San Francisco with seven rushing touchdowns.
Tight ends
Edge: 49ers49ersGeorge Kittle 26 rec, 337 yds, 5 TD · TE 
Luke FarrellFalcons
Kyle Pitts Sr. 15 rec, 169 yds, 3 TD · TE 
Charlie WoernerKittle has double Pitts's yardage and two more touchdowns. Sunday is National Tight Ends Day (ESPN headline, Oct 21), for whatever that is worth.
Kickers
Edge: Falcons49ers
Eddy Pineiro — 6 of 9, long 57; 19 of 22 extra pointsFalcons
Nick Folk — 9 of 12, long 51; 13 of 13 extra pointsPineiro has missed three field goals and three extra points; five of his nine tries were from 50-plus. Folk is steadier at short range. In a game the market has at three, that matters.
Punters
Even49ers
Corliss Waitman — 47.3 gross, 44.5 net, 9 of 20 inside the 20Falcons
Jake Bailey — 49.3 gross, 42.9 net, 8 of 21 inside the 20Bailey booms it, Waitman nets more. A wash.
Returners
Even49ers
Jordan James 30.2 avg (6) · PR 
Jacob Cowing · KR Deebo Samuel Sr. OUT (25.5 avg)FalconsBrian Robinson Jr. 27.6 avg · KR/PR Zachariah Branch 23.0 KR, 10.4 PR · KR 
Olamide Zaccheaus 20.8Samuel's 11 kick returns go to James, who has the best average of anyone here on a small sample. Branch is the only punt returner with a real sample.
Where are Purdy and Penix? their 2026 numbers against the other 30 teams' leading passers, through Week 6
Answer: Purdy is second in the league; Penix, in his four games, is closer than his team's record says. Against the other 31 teams' leading passers, Purdy is 2nd in passer rating (118.1, behind Lamar Jackson's 119.6), tied for 1st in touchdown passes (14, with Kirk Cousins), 1st in touchdown rate, 4th in yards per attempt and 2nd-lowest in sack rate. Penix has played four games (Cooper Rush started the first two) and is 5th in rating, 3rd in yards per attempt (8.6, a hair above Purdy) and 5th-lowest in interception rate, but 21st in sack rate and 31st in rushing. The difference Sunday is volume and protection, not arm.
| Stat | Purdy | Rank | Penix | Rank | League median | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passer rating | 118.1 | 2 of 32 | 106.0 | 5 of 32 | 91.9 | Lamar Jackson 119.6 |
| Completion % | 69.6 | 4 of 32 | 64.5 | 17 of 32 | 64.6 | Caleb Williams 72.5 |
| Yards per attempt | 8.5 | 4 of 32 | 8.6 | 3 of 32 | 7.1 | Lamar Jackson 10.1 |
| Pass yards per game | 243.3 | 14 of 32 | 236.0 | 18 of 32 | 238.9 | Bryce Young 309.8 |
| Passing TDs | 14 | 1 of 32 (tied) | 6 | 22 of 32 | 8.5 | Purdy, Kirk Cousins 14 |
| TD % | 8.2 | 1 of 32 | 5.5 | 10 of 32 | 4.6 | Brock Purdy 8.2 |
| Interceptions (fewest = 1st) | 2 | 8 of 32 | 1 | 3 of 32 | 3.5 | Jared Goff 0 |
| INT % (lowest = 1st) | 1.2 | 10 of 32 | 0.9 | 5 of 32 | 2.0 | Jared Goff 0.0 |
| Sack % (lowest = 1st) | 2.8 | 2 of 32 | 7.6 | 21 of 32 | 6.2 | Dak Prescott 2.8 |
| QB rushing yards | 156 | 7 of 32 | 5 | 31 of 32 | 65.5 | Josh Allen 240 |
Each team's leading passer by yards (32 players), ESPN 2026 season statistics fetched 2026-10-21. Penix has played four games; Jackson, Williams, Mayfield, Daniels, Murray and others three to five. Sack % = sacks / (attempts + sacks). Top ten shaded, bottom ten red.
Coaching staffs tenure, experience, and what the beat has said this season
49ers
- Kyle Shanahan, head coach; ESPN lists him in his 9th season. 6-0 this year.
Falcons
- Kevin Stefanski, head coach; ESPN lists six seasons of head-coaching experience. 2-4 in Atlanta.
Head coaches: ESPN coaches API for 2026, fetched Oct 21. Coordinator names were not confirmed this turn and are left out.
Missed tackles what is and isn't confirmed for each side
Missed-tackle counts through Week 6 were not confirmed for either team this turn, so no number is given.
Why it matters Sunday anyway. Bijan Robinson has seven big plays and a long run of 59 (ESPN); Fred Warner has 58 tackles and three forced fumbles. If San Francisco's linebackers tackle Robinson at first contact, Atlanta is down to London and a Penix who has been sacked on 7.6% of dropbacks.
ESPN 2026 player statistics, fetched Oct 21. Refresh Thursday if PFR/PFF team totals are published.
Reassessment Mack's pick against the market, and what would move it
| Mack | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Falcons +1.8 | 49ers −3.0 |
| 49ers win probability | 55% | ESPN predictor 78.7% |
| Straight-up pick | 49ers | |
| Spread side | Falcons +3 | |
| Total | Under | 50.5 |
How they compare. Mack and the market pick the same winner; the gap is 1.2 points on the spread, enough for Atlanta at +3. ESPN's predictor is much further toward San Francisco than either.
What would change it. Evans and Bosa both playing pushes the number toward the market; Evans out with Samuel already out leaves Purdy with Kittle, Cooks and McCaffrey. On Atlanta's side, Daniels and Deablo both out thins the middle against McCaffrey. A Penix setback would flip the side: Rush has 4 interceptions in 39 attempts.
Mack's view (judgment). The Under is about two offenses that may be short their best receivers and run-heavy game scripts; 50.5 needs both teams near their averages (29.5 and 23.7 sum to 53.2), so this is a lean, not a lock.
Odds: DraftKings via ESPN, frozen at board build. Predictor: ESPN game summary 401873017 (Oct 21).
Unit by unit ESPN team statistics through Week 6, fetched Oct 21; each row says which side has the edge and why
| Unit | 49ers | Falcons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring | 29.5 points a game; 177 scored, 110 allowed | 23.7 points a game; 142 scored, 153 allowed | 49ers |
| San Francisco has outscored opponents by 67 in six wins; Atlanta is −11 and has allowed 30-plus twice in a row (Baltimore 30, Chicago 31). | |||
| Passing offense | 238.5 net yards a game · Purdy 118.1 rating | 194.8 net yards a game · Penix 106.0 (team 7 INT) | 49ers |
| Atlanta's numbers include two Rush starts and a Strand appearance (5 INT between them). With Penix the gap narrows; it does not close. | |||
| Rushing offense | 128.2 yards a game · 4.6 a carry | 149.5 yards a game · 5.1 a carry | Falcons |
| Bijan Robinson's 641 yards are the best single thing either offense has. | |||
| Protection | 5 sacks allowed, 29 yds | 16 sacks allowed, 97 yds | 49ers |
| Eleven fewer sacks. The biggest gap on the sheet. | |||
| Pass rush and havoc | 15 sacks · 25 tackles for loss · 19 passes defended | 15 sacks · 34 tackles for loss · 28 passes defended | Falcons |
| Atlanta has more negative plays and more passes defended; San Francisco has done it mostly without Bosa. | |||
| Takeaways | 7 (3 INT, 4 fumbles) · 6 giveaways · +1 | 5 (1 INT, 4 fumbles) · 12 giveaways · −7 | 49ers |
| Atlanta has given it away twice a game; Purdy has thrown two interceptions. | |||
| Third down | 51.5% | 38.9% | 49ers |
| San Francisco converts more than half its third downs. | |||
| Red zone TD % | 85.0% | 75.0% | 49ers |
| Both good; San Francisco nearly always finishes. | |||
| Special teams | Pineiro 6/9, 19/22 XP · Waitman 44.5 net | Folk 9/12, 13/13 XP · Bailey 42.9 net | Even |
| Atlanta has the steadier kicker, San Francisco the better net punter. | |||
Points scored and allowed summed from the six ESPN schedule results for each team (weeks 1–6); other figures ESPN 2026 team statistics, fetched Oct 21.