NFL 2026 · after Week 7

Ranked: Power Rankings

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By Mack (Analysis); ΖΓ636 (Adjustments)  ·  October 28, 2026, after all 14 Week 7 games  ·  next: how the season projects by division

Published Sep 14, 2026, 12:13 PM PT  ·  Updated Oct 27, 2026, 1:19 PM PT

How are the ratings updated?

Todd's ratings never move on their own. After each week I shift both teams by one tenth of the surprise, the actual home margin minus the projected margin, clamped to ±21 points. The home team gains that amount and the away team loses it, so the league total never drifts. Results after Week 7: Bills, Seahawks, Bengals, Chiefs, Bears are the top five; 49ers fell 8 places, Bengals rose 9.

Legend

Input, blue. Typed by Todd or copied from the schedule. No formula behind it. Formula, orange. Computed by Excel from the cells above it. Column letter shown. Output, green. The one number the sheet exists to produce. Seeded, gold dashed. Started as a formula, meant to be overwritten. Rows still holding the seed have no real book line. Dead end, red dotted. Stored but referenced by nothing. Mack's addition, purple. Logic Todd never wrote; labeled so it is never mistaken for his. −3.5Spread sign: home-side, sportsbook convention. Negative = home favored by that many points. EdgeTodd's spread minus the book's. Negative = he has the home team stronger than Vegas; positive = he leans away. SUStraight up: did the team Todd's spread favored win the game. ATSAgainst the spread: did the side Todd's edge pointed to cover the book line. Blank on seeded rows. ✅ ❌Hit / miss. – means no real book line, so not scoreable. TierContender ≥ 4 · Playoff ≥ 2 · Middle −2 to 2 · Below ≥ −4 · Bottom below −4. Same cut lines used in the ranking above. ▲ ▼Move: places gained or lost versus the previous week's order. A team can move without playing when others pass it. SurpriseActual margin minus projected margin, clamped to ±21; one tenth of it moves each team, so one game is worth at most about 2 points.

How does the spreadsheet get from ratings to a spread?

Flow from Todd's inputs to the edge, plus Mack's update loop Home Team (F) schedule, nfl.com Neutral Site? (H) Y / N HFA table (T:U) 32 teams, 1.2 to 2.4 Ratings (J, K) away, home; weekly I · Projected HFA =IF(H="Y", 0.2, VLOOKUP(F, T4:U35, 2)) neutral site is a flat 0.2, a constant inside the formula L · Projected Spread (home) = −( I + (K − J) ) negative = home favored, sportsbook sign M · Book line seed =ROUND(L×2)/2 typed over by hand; 4 rows never were N · Edge = L − M < 0 Todd likes home more than the book > 0 Todd leans away O · O/U stored, never used Mack · rating update (not in Todd's sheet) new = old + 0.1 × clamp(actual − projected, ±21) winner up, loser down by the same amount; ratings sum is conserved
Sources: formulas and values read directly from the workbook (every derived cell recomputed, 0 mismatches) · scores from the ESPN scoreboard, Week 7, 14 of 14 games final · ratings and home-field values are Todd's opinions, not independently verified. For entertainment only; not betting advice. Static page, no tracking.
Rank1st of 32
Rating+5.5 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+5.5 · rating moved 0.0
Move▲1 place vs the Week 6 order
TierContender
Rank2nd of 32
Rating+5.3 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+3.5 · rating moved +1.8
Move▲7 places vs the Week 6 order
TierContender
Rank3rd of 32
Rating+5.2 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+3.1 · rating moved +2.1
Move▲9 places vs the Week 6 order
TierContender
Rank4th of 32
Rating+4.8 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+6.6 · rating moved −1.8
Move▼3 places vs the Week 6 order
TierContender
Rank5th of 32
Rating+4.7 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+4.3 · rating moved +0.4
Move▼1 place vs the Week 6 order
TierContender
Rank6th of 32
Rating+4.6 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+3.5 · rating moved +1.1
Move▲2 places vs the Week 6 order
TierContender
Rank7th of 32
Rating+4.1 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+4.1 · rating moved 0.0
Move▼2 places vs the Week 6 order
TierContender
Rank8th of 32
Rating+3.9 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+3.2 · rating moved +0.7
Move▲3 places vs the Week 6 order
TierPlayoff
Rank9th of 32
Rating+3.5 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+3.9 · rating moved −0.4
Move▼3 places vs the Week 6 order
TierPlayoff
Rank10th of 32
Rating+3.3 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+3.3 · rating moved 0.0
Move— places vs the Week 6 order
TierPlayoff
Rank11th of 32
Rating+3.1 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+4.3 · rating moved −1.2
Move▼8 places vs the Week 6 order
TierPlayoff
Rank12th of 32
Rating+2.7 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+2.7 · rating moved 0.0
Move▲2 places vs the Week 6 order
TierPlayoff
Rank13th of 32
Rating+2.3 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+2.3 · rating moved 0.0
Move▲2 places vs the Week 6 order
TierPlayoff
Rank14th of 32
Rating+1.5 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+3.6 · rating moved −2.1
Move▼7 places vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank15th of 32
Rating+1.5 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+2.8 · rating moved −1.3
Move▼2 places vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank16th of 32
Rating+1.5 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−0.5 · rating moved +2.0
Move▲3 places vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank17th of 32
Rating+1.3 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+1.2 · rating moved +0.1
Move▼1 place vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank18th of 32
Rating+0.7 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−0.5 · rating moved +1.2
Move▲2 places vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank19th of 32
Rating+0.6 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−1.5 · rating moved +2.1
Move▲4 places vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank20th of 32
Rating−1.0 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−1.0 · rating moved 0.0
Move▲1 place vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank21st of 32
Rating−1.4 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+0.6 · rating moved −2.0
Move▼4 places vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank22nd of 32
Rating−1.7 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−1.7 · rating moved 0.0
Move▲2 places vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank23rd of 32
Rating−1.7 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−3.0 · rating moved +1.3
Move▲3 places vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank24th of 32
Rating−2.0 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week+0.1 · rating moved −2.1
Move▼6 places vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank25th of 32
Rating−2.0 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−2.0 · rating moved 0.0
Move— places vs the Week 6 order
TierMiddle
Rank26th of 32
Rating−2.3 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−1.2 · rating moved −1.1
Move▼4 places vs the Week 6 order
TierBelow
Rank27th of 32
Rating−3.7 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−4.1 · rating moved +0.4
Move▲2 places vs the Week 6 order
TierBelow
Rank28th of 32
Rating−3.9 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−3.8 · rating moved −0.1
Move— places vs the Week 6 order
TierBelow
Rank29th of 32
Rating−4.0 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−3.3 · rating moved −0.7
Move▼2 places vs the Week 6 order
TierBelow
Rank30th of 32
Rating−4.8 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−5.5 · rating moved +0.7
Move▲1 place vs the Week 6 order
TierBottom
Rank31st of 32
Rating−5.3 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−5.0 · rating moved −0.3
Move▼1 place vs the Week 6 order
TierBottom
Rank32nd of 32
Rating−6.4 points vs an average team, neutral field
Last week−5.7 · rating moved −0.7
Move— places vs the Week 6 order
TierBottom

Left: the order after Week 6. Right: the same ratings moved by every Week 7 final. Lines follow each team; color = tier after Week 7. A dot after a name means its Week 7 game is still to be played.

MACK · ANALYSISSource: Todd's 2026 NFL Weekly Intel workbook (preseason ratings and home-field values); ESPN scoreboard, Week 7 finals, retrieved 2026-10-28. Tiers: Contender ≥ 4, Playoff ≥ 2, Middle to −2, Below to −4, Bottom under −4.

Todd's Power Rankings, re-run through Week 7

above averagebelow averagedashed line = 0, an average team +0.6league average rating
Showing

MACK · ANALYSISSource: Todd's 2026 NFL Weekly Intel workbook (ratings dated 2026-08-16); ESPN scoreboard, finals through Week 7, retrieved 2026-10-28. Figures rounded to one decimal.