By Mack (Analysis); ΖΓ636 (Adjustments) · October 28, 2026 · companion to the power rankings
Published Sep 16, 2026, 10:23 AM PT · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 9:52 AM PT
Take Todd's ratings as they stand after Week 7, run every remaining game through his spread formula, turn each projected margin into a win probability, and add them up: an expected record for all 32 teams and a projected winner in each division.
How to read a team card. The big number is the projected final record (expected wins out of 17: wins so far plus the sum of win probabilities). The line under it shows the record now and the record if every favorite wins; the gap between the two is how many coin flips the team faces. Open a card for the rating and the remaining-schedule figure.
Method. Projected home margin = home-field advantage plus the rating difference (flat 0.2 at the eight neutral-site games); results are assumed to scatter around it with a spread of 13.5 points, my parameter. A team favored by 3 wins about 59% of the time; by 10, about 77%. Ratings frozen at their post-Week-7 values; no injuries, byes or rest. Update factor one tenth of each surprise, softened from one fifth at ΖΓ636's suggestion.
Sources: Todd's 2026 NFL Weekly Intel workbook (ratings updated for every final through Week 7 at one tenth of each surprise); ESPN scoreboard feed, schedule and division membership, retrieved 2026-10-28. Win probabilities from a normal scatter of 13.5 points around the projected margin, my parameter. Ratings frozen at their post-Week-7 values; no injuries, byes or rest. For entertainment only; not betting advice. Static page, no tracking.
- 2 divisions have a clear favorite: Bills (12.0 expected wins), Jaguars (10.8 expected wins), each at least 1.5 wins clear of second.
- 6 are open: Cowboys lead the NFC East by 0.3, Chiefs lead the AFC West by 0.3, Falcons lead the NFC South by 0.6, Vikings lead the NFC North by 1.0, 49ers lead the NFC West by 1.3, Bengals lead the AFC North by 1.3.
- The Broncos project to 11.3 wins, second in the AFC West, with the 31st-hardest remaining schedule in the league.
Projected winner Bills, 2.2 wins clear. Four cards below, best projected record first; tap one for the full row.
12.0expected wins
5.0expected losses
5-1record now
15-2if every favorite wins
+5.5rating
+0.6remaining schedule, 17th-hardest
AFC East: projected winner, 2.2 wins clear.
9.8expected wins
7.2expected losses
4-3record now
12-5if every favorite wins
+3.5rating
+0.6remaining schedule, 18th-hardest
AFC East: 2.2 expected wins behind Bills.
5.6expected wins
11.4expected losses
2-5record now
3-14if every favorite wins
-4.0rating
+1.2remaining schedule, 8th-hardest
AFC East: 6.4 expected wins behind Bills.
4.4expected wins
12.6expected losses
1-5record now
2-15if every favorite wins
-4.8rating
+2.2remaining schedule, 1st-hardest
AFC East: 7.6 expected wins behind Bills.
Projected winner Bengals, 1.3 wins clear. Four cards below, best projected record first; tap one for the full row.
11.6expected wins
5.4expected losses
4-2record now
15-2if every favorite wins
+5.2rating
−1.6remaining schedule, 32nd-hardest
AFC North: projected winner, 1.3 wins clear.
10.2expected wins
6.8expected losses
5-2record now
11-6if every favorite wins
+1.3rating
+0.4remaining schedule, 21st-hardest
AFC North: 1.3 expected wins behind Bengals.
9.1expected wins
7.9expected losses
4-3record now
9-8if every favorite wins
+1.5rating
+1.1remaining schedule, 9th-hardest
AFC North: 2.4 expected wins behind Bengals.
8.8expected wins
8.2expected losses
5-2record now
6-11if every favorite wins
-3.7rating
+0.7remaining schedule, 15th-hardest
AFC North: 2.8 expected wins behind Bengals.
Projected winner Jaguars, 3.3 wins clear. Four cards below, best projected record first; tap one for the full row.
10.8expected wins
6.2expected losses
4-2record now
14-3if every favorite wins
+4.1rating
−0.1remaining schedule, 27th-hardest
AFC South: projected winner, 3.3 wins clear.
7.5expected wins
9.5expected losses
2-5record now
9-8if every favorite wins
+1.5rating
−0.2remaining schedule, 28th-hardest
AFC South: 3.3 expected wins behind Jaguars.
6.5expected wins
10.5expected losses
2-5record now
6-11if every favorite wins
-1.7rating
0.0remaining schedule, 25th-hardest
AFC South: 4.3 expected wins behind Jaguars.
4.0expected wins
13.0expected losses
1-6record now
1-16if every favorite wins
-5.3rating
+2.0remaining schedule, 2nd-hardest
AFC South: 6.8 expected wins behind Jaguars.
Projected winner Chiefs, 0.3 wins clear. Four cards below, best projected record first; tap one for the full row.
11.6expected wins
5.4expected losses
5-1record now
12-5if every favorite wins
+4.8rating
+1.0remaining schedule, 11th-hardest
AFC West: projected winner, 0.3 wins clear.
11.3expected wins
5.7expected losses
5-2record now
14-3if every favorite wins
+3.9rating
−0.6remaining schedule, 31st-hardest
AFC West: 0.3 expected wins behind Chiefs.
7.2expected wins
9.8expected losses
3-4record now
7-10if every favorite wins
-2.3rating
+0.4remaining schedule, 22nd-hardest
AFC West: 4.4 expected wins behind Chiefs.
4.4expected wins
12.6expected losses
0-6record now
2-15if every favorite wins
-2.0rating
+1.5remaining schedule, 5th-hardest
AFC West: 7.2 expected wins behind Chiefs.
Projected winner Cowboys, 0.3 wins clear. Four cards below, best projected record first; tap one for the full row.
8.5expected wins
8.5expected losses
3-4record now
10-7if every favorite wins
+1.5rating
−0.4remaining schedule, 30th-hardest
NFC East: projected winner, 0.3 wins clear.
8.2expected wins
8.8expected losses
4-2record now
7-9if every favorite wins
-1.7rating
+1.1remaining schedule, 10th-hardest
NFC East: 0.3 expected wins behind Cowboys.
6.7expected wins
10.3expected losses
2-5record now
5-12if every favorite wins
-1.4rating
−0.2remaining schedule, 29th-hardest
NFC East: 1.9 expected wins behind Cowboys.
6.1expected wins
10.9expected losses
1-4record now
4-12if every favorite wins
-1.0rating
+0.4remaining schedule, 23rd-hardest
NFC East: 2.5 expected wins behind Cowboys.
Projected winner Vikings, 1.0 wins clear. Four cards below, best projected record first; tap one for the full row.
11.8expected wins
5.2expected losses
6-0record now
11-6if every favorite wins
+2.3rating
+1.5remaining schedule, 7th-hardest
NFC North: projected winner, 1.0 wins clear.
10.8expected wins
6.2expected losses
5-2record now
12-5if every favorite wins
+4.7rating
+2.0remaining schedule, 3rd-hardest
NFC North: 1.0 expected wins behind Vikings.
10.3expected wins
6.7expected losses
4-2record now
11-6if every favorite wins
+3.3rating
+0.8remaining schedule, 13th-hardest
NFC North: 1.5 expected wins behind Vikings.
9.5expected wins
7.5expected losses
4-3record now
10-7if every favorite wins
+2.7rating
+0.8remaining schedule, 14th-hardest
NFC North: 2.2 expected wins behind Vikings.
Projected winner Falcons, 0.6 wins clear. Four cards below, best projected record first; tap one for the full row.
8.0expected wins
9.0expected losses
3-4record now
8-9if every favorite wins
+0.7rating
+0.8remaining schedule, 12th-hardest
NFC South: projected winner, 0.6 wins clear.
7.4expected wins
9.6expected losses
3-3record now
5-12if every favorite wins
-2.0rating
+1.5remaining schedule, 6th-hardest
NFC South: 0.6 expected wins behind Falcons.
7.0expected wins
10.0expected losses
2-5record now
7-10if every favorite wins
+0.6rating
+0.5remaining schedule, 20th-hardest
NFC South: 0.9 expected wins behind Falcons.
5.9expected wins
11.1expected losses
2-5record now
4-13if every favorite wins
-3.9rating
0.0remaining schedule, 26th-hardest
NFC South: 2.0 expected wins behind Falcons.
Projected winner 49ers, 1.3 wins clear. Four cards below, best projected record first; tap one for the full row.
11.7expected wins
5.3expected losses
6-1record now
13-4if every favorite wins
+3.1rating
+0.5remaining schedule, 19th-hardest
NFC West: projected winner, 1.3 wins clear.
10.4expected wins
6.6expected losses
4-3record now
13-4if every favorite wins
+5.3rating
+0.1remaining schedule, 24th-hardest
NFC West: 1.3 expected wins behind 49ers.
8.8expected wins
8.2expected losses
3-4record now
11-6if every favorite wins
+4.6rating
+1.6remaining schedule, 4th-hardest
NFC West: 2.9 expected wins behind 49ers.
5.1expected wins
11.9expected losses
2-5record now
2-15if every favorite wins
-6.4rating
+0.6remaining schedule, 16th-hardest
NFC West: 6.6 expected wins behind 49ers.
Average rating of each team's remaining opponents, adjusted for where the game is played. Positive means a harder road. The whole league sits within 3.8 points from hardest to easiest, less than a strong team's home-field edge, so schedule shifts a projection by a game or so, not a tier.
1st-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 4.4-12.6 (1-5 now), AFC East.
2nd-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 4.0-13.0 (1-6 now), AFC South.
3rd-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 10.8-6.2 (5-2 now), NFC North.
4th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 8.8-8.2 (3-4 now), NFC West.
5th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 4.4-12.6 (0-6 now), AFC West.
6th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 7.4-9.6 (3-3 now), NFC South.
7th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 11.8-5.2 (6-0 now), NFC North.
8th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 5.6-11.4 (2-5 now), AFC East.
9th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 9.1-7.9 (4-3 now), AFC North.
10th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 8.2-8.8 (4-2 now), NFC East.
Bengals pair the softest slate with the top rating, which is why they lead the projection. The Broncos are 2nd-easiest.
32nd-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 11.6-5.4 (4-2 now), AFC North.
31st-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 11.3-5.7 (5-2 now), AFC West.
30th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 8.5-8.5 (3-4 now), NFC East.
29th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 6.7-10.3 (2-5 now), NFC East.
28th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 7.5-9.5 (2-5 now), AFC South.
27th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 10.8-6.2 (4-2 now), AFC South.
26th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 5.9-11.1 (2-5 now), NFC South.
25th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 6.5-10.5 (2-5 now), AFC South.
24th-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 10.4-6.6 (4-3 now), NFC West.
23rd-hardest remaining schedule of 32. Projected 6.1-10.9 (1-4 now), NFC East.
