NFL 2026 · Week 7 · Pre-game analysis

Bengals at RavensSUNDAY 10 AM · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore

Wednesday Oct 21 read. Sunday Oct 25, 10:00 AM PT · CBS · board market Ravens −3.0, total 51.5 (DraftKings via ESPN, frozen at the board build); ESPN now shows Bengals −1.5, total 48.5 (Oct 21). Bengals 3-2, Ravens 4-2.
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The readThis game turns on Lamar Jackson's ankle. With him, Baltimore has the league's top-rated passer and a 151.5-yard-a-game run game behind Derrick Henry. Without him, the Ravens scored 10 at Cleveland on Sunday. Cincinnati comes off its bye with Burrow completing 71.4%, a 50% third-down rate and 17 sacks in five games, so it is the more complete team on paper if Huntley starts. The market has already moved from Ravens −3 to Bengals −1.5. Mack's Ravens pick needs Jackson on the field Sunday.
⚠ Quarterback alert

Lamar Jackson (QB, ankle) is listed QUESTIONABLE on ESPN's injury feed (updated Oct 21) with a return date of Oct 25. He was hurt on a sack at the end of the first half of the Week 4 win over Tennessee and has not started since. Jesse Minter said Wednesday afternoon: "Lamar was actually able to get a little bit of limited work in, in preparation … it's a day by day thing" (SI, Jason La Canfora, Oct 21). It was his first time back on a field since the injury. Tyler Huntley started at Atlanta (24/32, 201, 2 TD, a 30–23 overtime win) and at Cleveland (19/31, 165, 1 TD, a 13–10 loss), per ESPN box scores. I have not seen the official Wednesday practice report yet, so Friday's game status is the number to watch.

More Baltimore questionables (ESPN): Rashod Bateman (WR, shoulder), Cam Jurgens (C, concussion), Andrew Vorhees (G, foot), Broderick Washington Jr. (DT, ankle). Under the house rule, questionable is not out.

Cincinnati's side: Kyle Dugger (S, quadriceps) and Colbie Young (WR, knee) are questionable. Tanner Hudson (TE, pectoral), Swayze Bozeman (LB, forearm) and Jalen Davis (CB, hamstring) are on IR.

Sources: ESPN game-summary injury feed for event 401873012 (fetched Oct 21); si.com Ravens On SI, Jason La Canfora (Oct 21); ESPN box scores for Ravens weeks 5–6 (fetched Oct 21). Re-check Friday's game statuses.

Player matchups ESPN box scores (Bengals weeks 1–5, Ravens weeks 1–6), team statistics and injury feed, pulled Oct 21

Orange card = Bengals have the edgePurple card = Ravens have the edgeGrey = even
1

Burrow vs. a Baltimore secondary that has three interceptions

Edge: Bengals
Bengals
QB Joe Burrow — 135/189, 1,361 yds, 11 TD, 3 INT, 104.4 rating, 71.4% (5 games)
Ravens
S Kyle Hamilton 46 tackles, 1 INT, 5 PD · S Malaki Starks 38 tackles, 1 sack · CB Marlon Humphrey 5 PD · CB Nate Wiggins 3 PD

Burrow is completing 71.4% and threw 4 touchdowns at Miami in his last game. Baltimore has 3 interceptions and 22 passes defended in six games, and Hamilton's is the only one in the secondary. Burrow's 428-yard game against Jacksonville (39 of 54) shows the ceiling when Cincinnati has to throw.

2

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs. Baltimore's corners

Edge: Bengals
Bengals
WR Ja'Marr Chase 27 rec, 289 yds, 4 TD · WR Tee Higgins 27 rec, 423 yds, 1 TD (43 targets) · WR Colbie Young QUESTIONABLE (knee)
Ravens
CB Marlon Humphrey · CB Nate Wiggins · CB Chidobe Awuzie (2 games) · S Kyle Hamilton

Higgins has been the yardage man (157 yards on 16 targets against Jacksonville) and Chase the scorer. Baltimore has not shown it can take either away: three interceptions in six games, and Humphrey and Wiggins have eight passes defended between them.

3

Lamar Jackson — or Tyler Huntley — vs. Cincinnati's defense

Edge: Ravens
Bengals
S Jordan Battle 32 tackles, 3 INT (team's only interceptions) · S Dax Hill 27 tackles, 5 PD · CB DJ Turner II 5 PD · S Kyle Dugger QUESTIONABLE
Ravens
QB Lamar Jackson QUESTIONABLE (ankle) — 68/96, 967 yds, 6 TD, 1 INT, 119.6 rating, 10.1 a pass (4 games) · QB Tyler Huntley — 51/72, 429 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 6.0 a pass

The matchup of the game, and it depends on Friday. With Jackson, Baltimore has the league's top passer rating among the 32 leaders. Without him the offense scored 30 in overtime at Atlanta and 10 at Cleveland, with Huntley at 5.3 a pass there. Battle has all three of Cincinnati's interceptions. Edge to Baltimore only if Jackson plays.

4

Derrick Henry vs. Cincinnati's run defense

Edge: Ravens
Bengals
LB Demetrius Knight Jr. 42 tackles, 1 TD · LB Barrett Carter 41 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 4 TFL · DT Dexter Lawrence II 3 sacks · DT Jonathan Allen 3 sacks
Ravens
RB Derrick Henry 130 car, 534 yds, 7 TD (4.1) · RB Justice Hill 18 car, 133 yds

Baltimore runs for 151.5 yards a game at 4.9 a carry, and Henry has seven touchdowns. Without Jackson he has carried 24 for 102 and 17 for 58. Cincinnati's interior with Lawrence and Allen is the reason it can be a fair fight, but the Ravens' rushing volume is the clearest edge on the page.

5

Cincinnati's pass rush vs. Baltimore's protection

Edge: Bengals
Bengals
DT Jonathan Allen 3 sacks · DE Boye Mafe 3 · DT Dexter Lawrence II 3 · DE Cedric Johnson 2 · DT Kris Jenkins Jr. 2 · DE Myles Murphy 1.5 — 17 sacks
Ravens
C Cam Jurgens QUESTIONABLE (concussion) · G Andrew Vorhees QUESTIONABLE (foot) — 14 sacks allowed, 99 yds

Cincinnati has 17 sacks in five games spread across six linemen. Baltimore has allowed 14, six of them on Huntley in his two starts. With the center and a guard on the report, this edge belongs to the visitors.

6

Baltimore's pass rush vs. Burrow

Even
Bengals
OL in front of Joe Burrow: 9 sacks allowed, 61 yds (5 sacks at Houston, none at Miami)
Ravens
OLB Tavius Robinson 3.5 sacks · DE Trey Hendrickson 2 · OLB Mike Green 2 · LB Roquan Smith 2 · DT Nnamdi Madubuike 0.5 · DT Broderick Washington Jr. QUESTIONABLE — 15 sacks, 38 TFL

Burrow's 4.5% sack rate ranks 7th of 32 leading passers. Baltimore's 38 tackles for loss lead this matchup. Pressure counts are even; the quick throws favor Burrow.

7

Cincinnati's run game vs. Baltimore's front

Edge: Ravens
Bengals
RB Chase Brown 71 car, 246 yds, 1 TD (3.5) · RB Samaje Perine 27 car, 110 yds
Ravens
LB Roquan Smith 47 tackles, 1 INT · LB Trenton Simpson 41 tackles, 1 INT, 6 TFL · DT Nnamdi Madubuike · S Kyle Hamilton 6 TFL

Cincinnati runs for 82.8 yards a game at 3.6 a carry. Brown had 10 yards on 9 carries against Jacksonville. Smith and Simpson are the league-quality part of this Ravens defense.

8

Zay Flowers vs. Cincinnati's coverage

Edge: Ravens
Bengals
CB DJ Turner II 5 PD · CB Tacario Davis · S Dax Hill 5 PD · CB Jalen Davis IR
Ravens
WR Zay Flowers 32 rec, 471 yds, 2 TD (42 targets) · WR Rashod Bateman 16 rec, 233 yds, 1 TD QUESTIONABLE (shoulder)

Flowers caught 8 on 9 and 6 on 11 targets from Huntley, but for 53 and 66 yards. His 150-yard opener came with Jackson. Bateman's shoulder thins the group further.

9

Tight ends

Edge: Bengals
Bengals
TE Mike Gesicki 12 rec, 159 yds, 4 TD · TE Tanner Hudson IR (pectoral)
Ravens
TE Mark Andrews 23 rec, 181 yds, 1 TD

Gesicki has a touchdown in every game he has played (4 of 4). Andrews has the volume, but he averages 7.9 yards a catch.

10

Kickers

Edge: Bengals
Bengals
PK Evan McPherson — 10 of 10, long 58, 14 of 14 PAT
Ravens
PK Tyler Loop — 10 of 13, long 64

McPherson has not missed. Loop has the bigger leg but has missed one kick in three of his six games, including the 13–10 loss at Cleveland.

11

Punters

Edge: Ravens
Bengals
P Ryan Rehkow — 44.9 gross, 39.8 net (team), 9 inside the 20
Ravens
P Ryan Eckley — 46.9 gross, 44.5 net (team), 13 inside the 20

Eckley is nearly five yards better net, and that matters in a game where both defenses can rush the passer.

12

Returners

Even
Bengals
KR Dohnte Meyers 16 ret, 435 yds (27.2), long 81 · PR 7 for 41
Ravens
KR Chris Moore 8 ret, 229 yds (28.6) · KR/PR LaJohntay Wester 7 KR, 163 yds; 10 PR, 91 yds

Kick returns are close, and Baltimore gains three more yards a punt return. Neither team has a return touchdown.

Where is Joe Burrow? his 2026 numbers against the other 31 teams' leading passers, through Week 6

Answer: Burrow is top ten in almost every column, and Jackson leads the league when he plays. Among the 32 teams' leading passers, Burrow ranks 6th in passer rating (104.4), 2nd in completion rate (71.4%), 7th in yards a game and 7th in sack rate. The one ordinary number is 16th in yards per attempt (7.2): he has been efficient, not explosive. Jackson ranks 1st in rating (119.6) and yards per attempt (10.1) in four games. Baltimore's real starter for Sunday may be Tyler Huntley, though, who is outside the 32 (99.8 rating, 6.0 a pass, 0 INT on 72 attempts).

StatBurrowRankLeague medianBest
Passer rating104.46 of 3291.9Lamar Jackson 119.6
Completion %71.42 of 3264.6Caleb Williams 72.5
Yards per attempt7.216 of 327.1Lamar Jackson 10.1
Pass yards per game272.27 of 32238.9Bryce Young 309.8
Passing TDs1111 of 328.5Cousins, Lawrence, Purdy 14
TD %5.87 of 324.6Brock Purdy 8.2
Interceptions (fewest = 1st)313 of 323.5Jared Goff 0
INT % (lowest = 1st)1.611 of 322.0Jared Goff 0.0
Sack % (lowest = 1st)4.57 of 326.2Dak Prescott 2.8

Each team's leading passer by yards (32 players), ESPN 2026 season statistics fetched 2026-10-21, through Week 6. Burrow has played 5 games (Cincinnati had its bye in Week 6), and Jackson 4. Jackson's ranks: rating 1, completion 3, yards per attempt 1, TD% 5, INT% 7, sack% 19. Sack % = sacks / (attempts + sacks). Orange rank = top ten, red = bottom ten.

Coaching staffs tenure, experience, and what the beat has said this season

Bengals

  • Zac Taylor, head coach, still calling the offensive plays. RotoWire's AFC North preview lists no new coordinator for Cincinnati and notes "increasing criticism" of Taylor.
  • The staff is largely unchanged from 2025 (RotoWire).
  • Cincinnati is coming off its Week 6 bye.

Ravens

  • Jesse Minter, first-year head coach, 4–2.
  • Declan Doyle, offensive coordinator. He is 30 and, per RotoWire, has "never called plays at any level"; he was a non-play-calling coordinator for Ben Johnson's Bears in 2025.
  • Anthony Weaver, defensive coordinator.

RotoWire, "AFC North Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching and Personnel Changes," fetched Oct 21. Records: ESPN schedules, fetched Oct 21.

Missed tackles who makes the tackles for each side; missed-tackle counts pending

Missed-tackle counts for these two teams were not published on a page I opened this week, so this card stays on what the box scores show.

Tackle leaders. Baltimore: Roquan Smith 47, Kyle Hamilton 46, Trenton Simpson 41, Malaki Starks 38. Cincinnati: Demetrius Knight Jr. 42, Barrett Carter 41, Jordan Battle 32. Both teams' second level leads in tackles, which fits the matchup: Henry runs at Knight and Carter, and Cincinnati's short passing game runs at Smith and Simpson.

Why it matters Sunday. Henry is at 4.1 a carry and needs volume. Cincinnati's run defense has to tackle him on first contact for 60 minutes, which is the one way a Huntley-led Baltimore offense gets beaten.

ESPN box scores summed by player (Bengals weeks 1–5, Ravens weeks 1–6), fetched Oct 21. PFR and PFF missed-tackle totals not verified; refresh Thursday.

Reassessment Mack's frozen pick against a market that has crossed the key number

Mack and the market now disagree. At the board build both had Ravens −3.0. Since then ESPN's DraftKings line has moved to Bengals −1.5 (Ravens were favored at the open) and the total to 48.5 from 51.5 (Oct 21). ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Cincinnati 54.0%. The move tracks the Jackson news, and Mack's 59% Ravens number assumed a normal Baltimore lineup.

Mack (board)Market (board)Market now
LineRavens −3.0Ravens −3.0Bengals −1.5
Ravens win probability59%ESPN predictor 45.7%
Straight-up pickRavens
Spread sideRavens
TotalUnder51.548.5

What would change it. If Jackson is ruled out Friday, the Ravens side loses its premise: Huntley has averaged 6.0 a pass, and Baltimore scored 10 at Cleveland. Under the formula a QB out is the big input, so the pick should be re-run rather than defended. If Jackson is a full participant Friday, the current Bengals −1.5 is the better price on Mack's side than the board number. Jurgens and Vorhees at questionable are the secondary inputs.

Mack's view (judgment, not the formula). The Under was set at 51.5. At 48.5 it is thinner, but a Huntley start pushes the same direction.

Odds: DraftKings via ESPN game summary 401873012 (frozen board number; current, fetched Oct 21). Predictor: same page.

Unit by unit ESPN team statistics through Week 6, fetched Oct 21; Cincinnati has played five games and Baltimore six; each row says which side has the edge and why

UnitBengalsRavensEdge
Scoring25.6 points a game; 128 scored, 109 allowed (5 games)26.0 points a game; 156 scored, 132 allowed (6 games)Even
Same offense per game. Cincinnati allows 21.8 to Baltimore's 22.0. Baltimore has scored 10 and 30 without Jackson.
Passing offense260.0 net yards a game · Burrow 104.4 rating216.2 net yards a game · Jackson 119.6, Huntley 99.8Bengals
Cincinnati throws for 44 more yards a game, and Burrow is healthy.
Rushing offense82.8 yards a game · 3.6 a carry151.5 yards a game · 4.9 a carryRavens
This is the widest gap on the page: 69 yards a game.
Protection9 sacks allowed, 61 yds14 sacks allowed, 99 ydsBengals
Cincinnati has played one fewer game, but Burrow's sack rate is 4.5% to Jackson's 6.8%.
Pass rush and havoc17 sacks · 31 TFL · 24 passes defended15 sacks · 38 TFL · 22 passes defendedEven
Cincinnati gets home more often and Baltimore makes more stops in the backfield.
Takeaways8 (3 INT, 5 fumbles) · 6 giveaways · +26 (3 INT, 3 fumbles) · 4 giveaways · +2Even
Both teams are +2. Burrow's 3 interceptions compare with 1 from Baltimore's quarterbacks.
Third down50.0%38.2%Bengals
Cincinnati converts half its third downs, about 12 points better.
Red zone TD %52.9%71.4%Ravens
When Henry gets near the goal line, Baltimore scores touchdowns. Cincinnati has needed McPherson.
Special teamsMcPherson 10/10 · punting 44.9 gross, 39.8 netLoop 10/13, long 64 · punting 46.9 gross, 44.5 netEven
Cincinnati has the surer kicker and Baltimore the better punter.

Points scored and allowed summed from the ESPN box scores for each team (Bengals weeks 1–5, Ravens weeks 1–6); other figures ESPN 2026 team statistics, fetched Oct 21.