NFL 2026 · Week 7 · Pre-game analysis

Rams at RaidersSUNDAY AFTERNOON · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

Sunday Oct 25, 1:25 PM PT · FOX · market Rams −4.5, total 48.5 (DraftKings via ESPN) · Mack's line Raiders +1.7. Rams 2-4, Raiders 3-3.
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The readMack's ratings make this a near coin flip (Rams 55%, fair line Raiders +1.7) while the market lays 4.5 with the Rams, and the week's news only widens that gap: Davante Adams, Poona Ford and kicker Blake Grupe are all on IR and Trent McDuffie is questionable. Stafford is still throwing for 299 yards a game, and the Rams run the ball far better (4.6 a carry to 3.0). But Las Vegas has Cousins's 14 touchdown passes, two tight ends with 56 catches, 15 sacks to the Rams' 8 and Matt Gay against the Rams' third kicker of the season. The pick is Rams straight up, Raiders with the points, and the Over.
⚠ Rams injury alert

The Rams lost four players to injured reserve between Sunday and Tuesday. ESPN's injury feed for this game (fetched Oct 21) lists WR Davante Adams (hamstring), DT Poona Ford (triceps), TE Terrance Ferguson (ankle) and K Blake Grupe (ACL) on IR, and CB Trent McDuffie (groin) QUESTIONABLE. Sean McVay put Adams out six to 10 weeks with a ruptured hamstring tendon (Field Level Media, Oct 20); Ford is out for the season and Grupe's torn ACL ends his (Fantasy Footballers, Oct 19–20). The same outlet reported DE Kobie Turner (groin) headed to IR, 4–6 weeks; ESPN's list did not show him yet.

Adams leads the Rams with 480 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. ESPN's depth chart now has Brandon McManus at kicker, the team's third of the season.

Las Vegas's side: DT Tonka Hemingway (concussion) is questionable; WRs Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton Jr. and TE Carter Runyon are on IR.

Sources: ESPN game-summary injury feed and depth charts, event 401873021 (fetched Oct 21); Field Level Media via Yardbarker (Oct 20); thefantasyfootballers.com (Oct 19–20). First official practice report is Wednesday; re-check Thursday.

Player matchups ESPN season statistics, depth charts and injury feed, pulled Oct 21 (six games each)

Blue card = Rams have the edgeSilver card = Raiders have the edgeGrey = even
1

Stafford vs. a Raiders secondary that takes the ball away

Edge: Rams
Rams
QB Matthew Stafford — 164/249, 1,794 yds, 11 TD, 6 INT, 91.7 rating · 10 sacks taken
Raiders
CB Hezekiah Masses 3 INT, 6 PD · CB Darien Porter 5 PD · NB Taron Johnson 26 tackles · S Jeremy Chinn 39 tackles, 2 FF · S Treydan Stukes 1 INT

Stafford is throwing for 299 yards a game, second among the league's leading passers, but his 6 interceptions are tied for fifth-most among them. Masses has three of the Raiders' four interceptions by himself. Volume favors Los Angeles; the Raiders' only real counter is a takeaway.

2

Puka Nacua without Davante Adams

Even
Rams
WR Puka Nacua 37 rec, 417 yds, 1 TD (4 games) · WR Jordan Whittington · WR Konata Mumpfield 8 rec, 127 yds · WR Davante Adams IR (30 rec, 480 yds, 4 TD)
Raiders
CB Eric Stokes 1 sack, 1 PD · CB Darien Porter · CB Hezekiah Masses · NB Taron Johnson

Adams leads the Rams in receiving yards and touchdowns, and McVay put his absence at six to 10 weeks (Field Level Media, Oct 20). That leaves Nacua with 52 targets in four games and a depth chart that runs Whittington (2 catches) and Mumpfield behind him. The Raiders' corners have 12 passes defended between Masses and Porter. Nacua should win his matchup; the second and third receivers are the problem.

3

Brock Bowers vs. the Rams' linebackers and safeties

Edge: Raiders
Rams
LB Nate Landman 51 tackles, 2 FF · LB Omar Speights 26 tackles, 2 sacks · S Quentin Lake 2 INT, 8 PD · S Kam Curl 30 tackles · S Kamren Kinchens 26 tackles
Raiders
TE Brock Bowers 28 rec, 382 yds, 3 TD (4 games) · TE Michael Mayer 28 rec, 266 yds, 1 TD

Bowers averages 95.5 receiving yards in the four games he has played, and Mayer has matched his catch total. Lake leads the Rams with 8 passes defended and 2 interceptions, but two tight ends this productive are a lot for one nickel safety. Edge to Las Vegas.

4

Cousins vs. the Rams' pass defense

Edge: Raiders
Rams
CB Trent McDuffie 1 INT, 7 PD QUESTIONABLE (groin) · CB Jaylen Watson 1 INT, 5 PD · CB Josh Wallace 1 INT, 4 PD
Raiders
QB Kirk Cousins — 135/213, 1,582 yds, 14 TD, 5 INT, 98.0 rating · 8 sacks taken · rookie Fernando Mendoza backup

Cousins has 14 touchdown passes, tied for the most among the 32 leading passers, on a 6.6% touchdown rate (3rd). The Rams have 5 interceptions and 32 passes defended, but McDuffie, their best cover corner by the numbers, is questionable with a groin injury. If he sits, Wallace and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. are next.

5

The Rams' pass rush vs. the Raiders' protection

Edge: Raiders
Rams
OLB Byron Young 3.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL · LB Omar Speights 2 · DE Aaron Donald 2 TFL (4 games) · OLB Myles Garrett (1 game) · DE Kobie Turner (reported IR, groin) · DT Poona Ford IR
Raiders
LT Kolton Miller · LG Spencer Burford · C Tyler Linderbaum · RG Caleb Rogers · RT DJ Glaze — 8 sacks allowed, 49 yds

The Rams have only 8 sacks in six games, and they lose two interior players this week: Ford is out for the season and Turner was reported headed to IR (Fantasy Footballers, Oct 20). Cousins's 3.6% sack rate is third-best among leading passers. Unless Garrett plays real snaps, this is the Raiders' line's edge.

6

The Raiders' pass rush vs. the Rams' line

Edge: Raiders
Rams
LT Alaric Jackson · LG Steve Avila · C Coleman Shelton · RG Kevin Dotson · RT Warren McClendon Jr. — 10 sacks allowed, 75 yds
Raiders
OLB Kwity Paye 3 sacks · DE Malcolm Koonce 3, 2 FF · OLB Maxx Crosby 2 · LB Quay Walker 2 · LB Nakobe Dean 1.5, 3 FF · DT Tonka Hemingway QUESTIONABLE (concussion)

Las Vegas has 15 sacks to the Rams' 8 and has spread them out. Stafford's sack rate (3.9%) is still fifth-best, so the Rams' line is not the weakness; the Raiders' edge here is the forced fumbles (Dean 3, Koonce 2) and 6 fumble recoveries.

7

Kyren Williams vs. the Raiders' front

Edge: Rams
Rams
RB Kyren Williams 80 car, 393 yds, 4 TD; 30 rec, 217 yds · RB Blake Corum 47 car, 223 yds, 1 TD
Raiders
LB Nakobe Dean 56 tackles, 4.5 TFL · LB Quay Walker 40 tackles · NT Adam Butler · DT Jonah Laulu

The Rams run for 112.7 yards a game at 4.6 a carry, and Williams is also their third-leading receiver. With Adams out he is likely to see more targets (Field Level Media, Oct 20). Dean leads Las Vegas with 56 tackles, but the Raiders' run defense has no counter to a back used this much in the passing game.

8

Ashton Jeanty vs. the Rams' run defense

Edge: Rams
Rams
LB Nate Landman · NT Ty Hamilton · DE Braden Fiske · DT Poona Ford IR
Raiders
RB Ashton Jeanty 98 car, 313 yds, 1 TD (3.2); 26 rec, 251 yds, 2 TD · RB Mike Washington Jr. 34 car, 168 yds

Las Vegas runs for 79.2 yards a game at 3.0 a carry, and Jeanty is at 3.2. His value is as a receiver (251 yards). Ford's loss hurts the Rams' interior, but the Raiders have not shown they can punish anyone on the ground.

9

Tight ends

Edge: Raiders
Rams
TE Tyler Higbee 24 rec, 246 yds, 1 TD · TE Colby Parkinson 9 rec, 55 yds · TE Terrance Ferguson IR
Raiders
TE Brock Bowers 28 rec, 382 yds, 3 TD · TE Michael Mayer 28 rec, 266 yds · TE Ian Thomas 4 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD

Las Vegas's two tight ends have 56 catches and 648 yards; the Rams' three healthy ones have 39 and 364, and Ferguson just went on IR.

10

Kickers

Edge: Raiders
Rams
PK Brandon McManus (top of ESPN's depth chart; no Rams kicks yet) · Harrison Mevis 5 of 9, long 48 · Blake Grupe IR (ACL)
Raiders
PK Matt Gay — 14 of 15, long 59

The Rams are on their third kicker of the season after Grupe tore his ACL against Arizona; their kickers are 6 of 10 on field goals between them. Gay has missed once. In a game the market has at 4.5, that is a real edge.

11

Punters

Edge: Raiders
Rams
P Ethan Evans — 48.3 gross, 38.4 net, 6 of 19 inside the 20
Raiders
P AJ Cole — 50.6 gross, 45.0 net, 8 of 22 inside the 20

Cole is more than six yards better net.

12

Returners

Edge: Raiders
Rams
KR/PR Alex Bachman 24.0 KR, 5.7 PR · KR Jordan Whittington 25.9 KR · Xavier Smith 9.9 PR
Raiders
KR Dylan Laube 29.8 KR · Dareke Young 25.2 KR · PR Malik Benson 13.6 PR

Las Vegas is ahead on both kickoffs and punts.

Where is Matthew Stafford? his 2026 numbers against the other 31 teams' leading passers, through Week 6

Answer: top of the league in volume, middle of the pack in efficiency, and the receiver room just lost its best player. Against the other 31 teams' leading passers, Stafford is 2nd in yards per game (299.0), 12th in completion rate, 15th in yards per attempt and 18th in rating. The weak spot is interceptions: 6, tied for fifth-most. Cousins, across the field, is 13th in rating (98.0), tied for 1st in touchdown passes (14) and 3rd in sack rate.

StatStaffordRankCousinsRankLeague medianBest
Passer rating91.71898.01391.9Lamar Jackson 119.6
Completion %65.91263.42164.6Caleb Williams 72.5
Yards per attempt7.2157.4147.1Lamar Jackson 10.1
Pass yards per game299.02263.78238.9Bryce Young 309.8
TD %4.4186.634.6Brock Purdy 8.2
INT % (lowest = 1st)2.4252.3242.0Jared Goff 0.0
Sack % (lowest = 1st)3.953.636.2Dak Prescott 2.8
QB rushing yards2127−23265.5Josh Allen 240

Each team's leading passer by yards (32 players), ESPN 2026 season statistics fetched 2026-10-21. Sack % = sacks / (attempts + sacks). Ties are shown at the higher rank.

Coaching staffs tenure, experience, and what the beat has said this season

Rams

  • Sean McVay, head coach. On Adams this week: out six to 10 weeks with a ruptured semitendinosus (Field Level Media, Oct 20). The Rams are 2–4 with three losses by four points or fewer.

Raiders

  • Klint Kubiak, first-year head coach; Seattle's offensive coordinator for its Super Bowl win last season (Las Vegas Sun, Jul 28). He named Cousins the starter over No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza before Week 1.
  • Andrew Janocko, offensive coordinator; four seasons with Cousins in Minnesota, one as his quarterbacks coach.

Las Vegas Sun (Jul 28, 2026) and theScore/NBC Sports on the Cousins decision, via search Oct 21; Field Level Media (Oct 20). Coordinator names on the Rams' side and the Raiders' defensive coordinator were not confirmed this turn and are left out.

Missed tackles who is making the stops on each side

Missed-tackle counts through Week 6 were not found on a page opened this turn, so this section stays on tackling volume from ESPN's season stats.

Who is making the stops. Las Vegas: Nakobe Dean 56 tackles and 3 forced fumbles, Quay Walker 40, Jeremy Chinn 39. Los Angeles: Nate Landman 51, Quentin Lake 42, Kam Curl 30.

Why it matters Sunday. The Raiders have 6 fumble recoveries; the Rams have 1. Kyren Williams will touch the ball 20-plus times without Adams, and Dean's three forced fumbles are the Raiders' best path to the turnover the market is not pricing.

ESPN 2026 player statistics, fetched Oct 21. Refresh Thursday with PFR/PFF missed-tackle data.

Reassessment Mack's pick against DraftKings and ESPN's predictor

Mack's ratings and the market disagree by almost three points. Mack has the Rams winning 55% of the time with a fair line of Raiders +1.7; DraftKings has Rams −4.5 and ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives the Rams 66.7%. That makes the Raiders the spread side, and the Over the total side at 48.5.

MackMarket
LineRaiders +1.7Rams −4.5
Rams win probability55%ESPN predictor 66.7%
Straight-up pickRams
Spread sideRaiders +4.5
TotalOver48.5

What the week has added. The ratings were frozen before the Rams' injury wave: Adams, Ford and Grupe gone, Turner reported to IR, McDuffie questionable. Every one of those pushes toward the Raiders' side, not away from it.

What would change it. McDuffie clearing Friday and Garrett taking a full workload would narrow the gap; the line moving to Rams −3 or below takes most of the value out of Raiders +4.5. On the total, Raiders games have averaged 54.0 combined points and Rams games 45.5; the Over leans on Las Vegas.

Odds and predictor: DraftKings via ESPN game summary 401873021, fetched Oct 21. Mack's numbers frozen at the board build.

Unit by unit ESPN team statistics through Week 6, fetched Oct 21; each row says which side has the edge and why

UnitRamsRaidersEdge
Scoring22.5 points a game; 135 scored, 138 allowed27.0 points a game; 162 scored, 162 allowedRaiders
Las Vegas scores 4.5 more a game; the Rams allow 23.0 a game to the Raiders' 27.0, so the margins are close to even (−3 and 0).
Passing offense288.7 net yards a game · 91.5 team rating · 7.2 per attempt263.5 net yards a game · 97.7 rating · 7.4 per attemptEven
The Rams throw for more; Cousins throws more touchdowns. Adams's injury tilts this toward Las Vegas from here.
Rushing offense112.7 yards a game · 4.6 a carry79.2 yards a game · 3.0 a carryRams
The biggest statistical gap on the page.
Protection10 sacks allowed, 75 yds8 sacks allowed, 49 ydsRaiders
Both lines are top-five by sack rate; Las Vegas is slightly cleaner.
Pass rush and havoc8 sacks · 25 TFL · 32 PD15 sacks · 26 TFL · 23 PDRaiders
Las Vegas nearly doubles the Rams' sacks; the Rams get their hands on more balls.
Takeaways6 (5 INT, 1 fumble) · 9 giveaways · −310 (4 INT, 6 fumbles) · 8 giveaways · +2Raiders
A five-point turnover-margin gap.
Third down44.0%42.3%Even
Both good, within two points.
Red zone TD %65.2%52.2%Rams
The Rams finish drives; Las Vegas settles for Gay more often.
Special teamsThird kicker of the year · Evans 38.4 netGay 14/15, long 59 · Cole 45.0 netRaiders
Clear Las Vegas edge in every phase.

Points scored and allowed summed from the six ESPN results for each team (weeks 1–6); other figures ESPN 2026 team statistics, fetched Oct 21.