Patriots at BearsTHURSDAY NIGHT · Soldier Field, Chicago
The Wednesday report was not posted when this was written (checked 8:30 AM PT Oct 21); for a Thursday game it is the one that carries game designations. The official reports so far are practice participation only (patriots.com, published Oct 21 9:12 AM, covering Monday and Tuesday). ESPN's game feed, updated Oct 21, already lists Alijah Vera-Tucker (G, hamstring) and Ben Brown (C/G, knee) as DOUBTFUL; both did not practice Monday or Tuesday, and Mike Vrabel said they "probably" won't play (Yahoo Sports via Heavy, Oct 20). Under the house rule doubtful means out. Morgan Moses (RT, foot) is listed QUESTIONABLE after leaving the Jets game; he was limited both days. Carlton Davis III (CB, neck) is questionable and was limited Tuesday. A.J. Brown (WR, ankle) was limited both days; he is not on ESPN's game feed. Romeo Doubs, New England's leading receiver by yards, is on injured reserve (ESPN roster).
If both guards sit, ESPN's depth chart puts Walter Rouse at left guard and Matt Pryor at right guard, with rookie Caleb Lomu behind Moses. Maye was not sacked Sunday (ESPN box score); that was with the starters for most of the game.
Chicago's side: RG Jonah Jackson (hip/quadriceps) QUESTIONABLE, limited Tuesday after not practicing Monday; Yahoo names Luke Newman or Jordan McFadden as the replacement. LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring), RB Kyle Monangai (toe/thumb) and LB Jack Sanborn (concussion) are questionable and did not practice either day. S Anthony Johnson Jr. went to IR. DE Montez Sweat serves the second game of a two-game suspension and DE Dayo Odeyingbo is on IR with a quadriceps injury (Yahoo, Oct 20), so Chicago's edge rush is Austin Booker plus whoever else steps up.
Sources: ESPN game-summary injury feed and team rosters for event 401873010 (fetched Oct 21); patriots.com "Week 7 Injury Report: Patriots at Bears" (Oct 21, both teams' Monday and Tuesday reports, the Bears' marked as estimates); Yahoo Sports / Heavy, Jordan J. Wilson (Oct 20). Re-check Wednesday afternoon and Thursday inactives.
Player matchups ESPN season statistics, depth charts and injury feed, pulled Oct 21 (six games each)
The patched Patriots interior vs. Chicago's pass rush
Edge: Bears
Patriots
Will Campbell · LG 
Walter Rouse (for 
Alijah Vera-Tucker DOUBTFUL = OUT) · C 
Jared Wilson · RG 
Matt Pryor (for 
Ben Brown DOUBTFUL = OUT) · RT 
Morgan Moses QUESTIONABLE / 
Caleb Lomu — 11 sacks allowed, 48 yds
Bears
Austin Booker 4 sacks, 5 TFL, 2 FF · NB 
Kyler Gordon 3 sacks (all Sunday, his only game) · DE 
Grady Jarrett · DE 
Montez Sweat SUSPENDED · DE 
Dayo Odeyingbo IR — 17 sacks as a teamThis is the matchup of the game. Chicago's 17 sacks rank 5th and New England's 11 allowed rank 10th fewest (ESPN team statistics, fetched Oct 21), but two of the five linemen who built that number are listed doubtful and a third questionable. Gordon had three sacks at Atlanta from the slot. Without Sweat and Odeyingbo the Bears' edge is thinner than the team total suggests, which is the only reason this is not a bigger edge.
New England's pass rush vs. Chicago's line
Edge: PatriotsPatriots
Elijah Ponder 5.5 sacks, 7.5 TFL · DT 
Christian Barmore 2 sacks · LB 
Gabe Jacas 1.5 sacks, 3.5 TFL — 14 sacks as a team (18th)Bears
Theo Benedet · LG 
Joe Thuney · C 
Garrett Bradbury · RG 
Jonah Jackson QUESTIONABLE / 
Luke Newman · RT 
Darnell Wright — 15 sacks allowed, 110 yds (21st)Ponder has more than a third of New England's sacks. Williams has been sacked 9 times in 3 games (four at Atlanta), a 9.0% rate that is 27th of 32 leading passers. If Jackson sits, Newman's 14 pass-block snaps Sunday (Yahoo, Oct 20) are the sample. Slight edge New England.
Drake Maye vs. Chicago's secondary
Edge: PatriotsPatriots
Drake Maye — 117/183, 1,463 yds, 11 TD, 7 INT, 92.8 rating; 18/32, 235, 3 TD, 0 INT SundayBears
Dillon Thieneman 39 tackles, 5 PD, 1 INT · CB 
Malik Muhammad II 4 PD, 1 INT · CB 
Jaylon Johnson 2 PD · CB 
Tyrique Stevenson Sr. 2 PD (full practice, hip) · S 
Anthony Johnson Jr. IRMaye averages 8.0 yards an attempt, 7th among the 32 leading passers, and Chicago's defense has 3 interceptions and 22 passes defended, tied 24th (ESPN, Oct 21). The cost is the 7 interceptions, 30th of 32. Edge New England through the air, provided Maye has time; see matchup 1.
Caleb Williams vs. New England's pass defense
Edge: BearsPatriots
Christian Gonzalez 5 PD (4 games) · CB 
Marcus Jones 5 PD, 1 INT · CB 
Charles Woods 4 PD, 1 INT · S 
Craig Woodson 1 INT · S 
Kevin Byard 26 tackles · CB 
Carlton Davis III QUESTIONABLEBears
Caleb Williams — 66/91, 712 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 101.5 rating in 3 games; 30/36, 305, 1 TD Sunday · backup 
Tyson Bagent 63.9 rating in his 3Williams missed three games with a hamstring injury (NFL.com) and came back with his most accurate game of the year. He leads all 32 leading passers in completion rate (72.5%) and has one interception. New England has 4 interceptions as a defense. Edge Chicago, with the caution that 91 attempts is a small sample.
Patriots receivers vs. Bears corners
EvenPatriots
DeMario Douglas 20 rec, 233 yds, 3 TD (7 for 86, 1 TD Sunday) · TE 
Hunter Henry 19 rec, 225 yds, 2 TD · WR 
A.J. Brown 6 rec, 53 yds on 14 targets (2 games; limited, ankle) · WR 
Kyle Williams 6 rec, 147 yds · WR 
Romeo Doubs IR (261 yds, 3 TD)BearsJaylon Johnson · CB Tyrique Stevenson Sr. · NB Kyler Gordon · CB Malik Muhammad IIDoubs led the team in receiving yards and is gone, so the targets go to Douglas and Henry. Brown was targeted 10 times Sunday for 3 catches and 27 yards (ESPN box score). Chicago's corners have one interception between them. Even.
Bears receivers vs. Patriots corners
Edge: BearsPatriotsChristian Gonzalez · CB Charles Woods (starts if Davis sits) · NB Marcus JonesBears
Luther Burden III 31 rec, 361 yds, 1 TD (8 for 95 Sunday) · WR 
Rome Odunze 20 rec, 312 yds · WR 
Kalif Raymond 26 rec, 244 yds, 1 TD · TE 
Colston Loveland 19 rec, 175 yds, 1 TDChicago has more receivers who produce: four with 175 yards or more to New England's two healthy ones. Burden caught all eight of his targets Sunday. Gonzalez has played four games; if he and Davis are both limited, Woods takes the outside.
Chicago's run game vs. New England's front
Edge: BearsPatriots
Robert Spillane 39 tackles · LB 
Christian Elliss 38 · DT 
Milton Williams 14 tackles · DT Christian Barmore 2 sacksBears
D'Andre Swift 94 car, 398 yds, 6 TD · RB 
Kyle Monangai 60 car, 324 yds, 3 TD QUESTIONABLE · RB 
Roschon Johnson 22 car, 73 ydsChicago runs for 160.7 yards a game, 1st in the league, at about 4.5 a carry (ESPN, Oct 21). Monangai has the better average (5.4 to Swift's 4.2) and did not practice Monday or Tuesday. Swift scored twice Sunday on 44 yards. New England's 26 tackles for loss rank 21st.
New England's run game vs. Chicago's front
EvenPatriots
Rhamondre Stevenson 71 car, 263 yds, 2 TD · RB 
TreVeyon Henderson 49 car, 194 yds (full practice, ankle) · RB 
Corey Kiner 31 car, 138 yds · QB Drake Maye 185 rush ydsBears
Devin Bush 34 tackles, 4 TFL · LB 
T.J. Edwards QUESTIONABLE / 
Noah Sewell · LB 
Jack Sanborn QUESTIONABLE · 33 TFL as a team (11th)New England runs for 130.7 a game, 6th, but its two lead backs average under four a carry (Stevenson 3.7, Henderson 4.0); Maye's legs (185 yards, 5th among leading passers) carry the number. Chicago may be without two linebackers. Both guards missing hurts the Patriots' run game as much as the pass protection. Even.
Tight ends
EvenPatriotsHunter Henry 19 rec, 225 yds, 2 TD (4 for 48, 1 TD Sunday)BearsColston Loveland 19 rec, 175 yds, 1 TD (6 for 65, 1 TD Sunday) · TE 
Cole Kmet 7 rec, 59 yds, 1 TDSame catches, Henry 50 yards ahead. Both scored Sunday. Even.
Kickers
EvenPatriots
Andy Borregales — 8 of 10, long 50Bears
Cairo Santos — 8 of 11, long 50One miss apart on the same number of makes; with a total of 50.5 neither should decide it.
Punters
Edge: BearsPatriots
Mitch Wishnowsky — 47.6 gross, 40.7 net, 8 of 18 inside the 20Bears
Tory Taylor — 49.3 gross, 43.2 net, 7 of 17 inside the 20Taylor is two and a half yards better net (ESPN player statistics). Small, but real field position.
Returners
EvenPatriotsKyle Williams 24.1 avg (16) · Corey Kiner 27.6 (5) · PR Marcus Jones 9.8 avg (10)Bears
Zavion Thomas 24.8 avg (18) · PR Kalif Raymond 12.2 avg (12)Kick returns are a wash; Raymond gains two more yards a punt return than Jones.
Where are Maye and Williams? their 2026 numbers against the 32 teams' leading passers, through Week 6
Answer: both are top-half passers, built differently. Maye is the downfield thrower: 7th of the 32 leading passers in yards per attempt, 7th in touchdowns, 6th in touchdown rate and 5th in quarterback rushing yards, but 30th in interceptions and interception rate. Williams is the efficient one: 1st in completion rate, 10th in passer rating, one interception, but his 9.0% sack rate is 27th (he took four Sunday) and he has played three games, so his counting stats rank low. Thursday puts the riskier thrower behind a patched line and the safer one behind a line that has allowed 15 sacks.
| Stat | Maye | Rank | Williams | Rank | League median | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passer rating | 92.8 | 15 of 32 | 101.5 | 10 of 32 | 91.9 | Lamar Jackson 119.6 |
| Completion % | 63.9 | 18 of 32 | 72.5 | 1 of 32 | 64.6 | Caleb Williams 72.5 |
| Yards per attempt | 8.0 | 7 of 32 | 7.8 | 9 of 32 | 7.1 | Lamar Jackson 10.1 |
| Pass yards per game | 243.8 | 13 of 32 | 237.3 | 17 of 32 | 238.9 | Bryce Young 309.8 |
| Passing TDs | 11 | 7 of 32 | 3 | 29 of 32 | 8 | 3 tied 14 |
| TD % | 6.0 | 6 of 32 | 3.3 | 25 of 32 | 4.6 | Brock Purdy 8.2 |
| Interceptions (fewest = 1st) | 7 | 30 of 32 | 1 | 3 of 32 | 4 | 2 tied 0 |
| INT % (lowest = 1st) | 3.8 | 30 of 32 | 1.1 | 8 of 32 | 2.0 | 2 tied 0.0 |
| Sack % (lowest = 1st) | 5.7 | 15 of 32 | 9.0 | 27 of 32 | 6.2 | Dak Prescott 2.8 |
| QB rushing yards | 185 | 5 of 32 | 110 | 9 of 32 | 66 | Josh Allen 240 |
Each team's leading passer by yards (32 players), ESPN 2026 season statistics fetched 2026-10-21. Williams has played 3 games (missed three with a hamstring injury, NFL.com); several other leaders have played three to five. Sack % = sacks / (attempts + sacks). Silver rank = top ten, red = bottom ten.
Coaching staffs tenure, experience, and what the beat has said this season
Patriots
- Mike Vrabel, head coach, hired Jan 12, 2025; 14–3 and a Super Bowl LX appearance in his first season (lost to Seattle 29–13), 54–45 with Tennessee 2018–23. 4–2 this year. This week on his guards: they "probably" won't play (Yahoo Sports, Oct 20).
- Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator.
- Zak Kuhr, defensive coordinator, promoted from inside linebackers coach for 2026; Terrell Williams, the 2025 coordinator, moved to assistant head coach.
- Jeremy Springer, special teams coordinator.
Bears
- Ben Johnson, head coach, named Jan 21, 2025, the franchise's 18th full-time head coach; Lions offensive coordinator 2022–24. 11–6 and an NFC North title in 2025, then a wild-card win over Green Bay and a 20–17 overtime loss to the Rams. 4–2 this year.
- Press Taylor, offensive coordinator, promoted for 2026 from pass game coordinator.
- Dennis Allen, defensive coordinator since 2025.
- Richard Hightower, special teams coordinator, fifth season in the role.
Staffs: chicagobears.com coaches page and NBC Sports / ProFootballTalk "Patriots name Terrell Williams assistant head coach as they finalize 2026 staff" (Mar 16, 2026), fetched Oct 21. Hire dates and records: Wikipedia pages for Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson, fetched Oct 21.
Missed tackles New England's number this season, and Chicago's
New England: 23 missed tackles, 25th of 32 (fewer is better); Chicago: 26, tied for 21st with Seattle (Pro Football Reference, via BetMGM, Oct 21). Denver has the most at 54, Detroit the fewest at 10.
Neither is a problem team. Both sit in the lower-middle of the league, three missed tackles apart.
Why it matters Thursday. Chicago's 160.7 rushing yards a game is the test for New England's tackling: Swift and Monangai have nine rushing touchdowns between them. New England's two lead backs average under four a carry, so the Bears' tacklers face less of that test.
Team totals: sports.betmgm.com "NFL Teams With Most Missed Tackles This Season" (Ryan Hannable, Oct 21, 2026, via PFR); the article does not state the week cutoff. Per-player missed tackles for these teams were not found.
Reassessment Mack's board line and pick, frozen at the Oct 21 board fetch
Where the board stands (Wednesday). Mack's line is Bears −2.8 with injuries (−2.1 before them), against a market Bears −3. That is a 0.2-point gap, well under the 2-point flag, so there is no projection-versus-market edge. Mack takes the Bears straight up at 58% and the Patriots with the points; the total pick is Under 50.5. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has Chicago at 59.4%, almost the same.
| Mack (board) | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Bears −2.8 (−2.1 before injuries) | Bears −3 (−102); SI listed −2.5 on Oct 19 |
| Bears win probability | 58% | ESPN predictor 59.4%; moneyline Bears −155, Patriots +130 |
| Straight-up pick | Bears | |
| Spread side | Patriots +3 | |
| Total | Under | 50.5 (SI listed 49.5 on Oct 19) |
Injury inputs the board already priced. New England: Vera-Tucker and Brown doubtful, Moses and Davis questionable. Chicago: Jackson, Edwards and Sanborn questionable, Anthony Johnson Jr. on IR. Those moved Mack's line 0.7 toward Chicago.
Mack's view (judgment, not the formula). The board agrees with the market, so this is a lean, not a bet. The Patriots at +3 is the formula reading a line just under a field goal; the case against it is that all four Chicago wins came by 8 or more. The Bears straight up rests on two backup guards against the league's 5th-ranked sack total on a short week. Each team has gone under 50.5 combined points in four of its six games.
Board: Mack's picks page for Week 7, game g01, built by nfl_picks_board.py Oct 21 (market DraftKings via ESPN, fetched Oct 21 7:43 AM PT). Moneyline and predictor: ESPN game summary 401873010, fetched Oct 21. SI: "Patriots vs. Bears Prediction, Odds, Spread" (Oct 19).
Unit by unit ESPN team statistics through Week 6, fetched Oct 21; each row says which side has the edge and why
| Unit | Patriots | Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring | 22.7 points a game; 136 scored, 113 allowed | 25.0 points a game; 150 scored, 119 allowed | Bears |
| Chicago scores two more a game; they allow almost the same (18.8 to 19.8). The Bears' 59 at Carolina in Week 1 props up their average. | |||
| Passing offense | 243.5 net yards a game (10th) · Maye 92.8 rating | 227.7 net yards a game (15th) · Williams 101.5 rating | Patriots |
| New England throws for 16 more yards a game and Maye has played all six; Chicago's number includes three games without Williams. | |||
| Rushing offense | 130.7 yards a game (6th) · 4.2 a carry | 160.7 yards a game (1st) · 4.5 a carry | Bears |
| Chicago runs for 30 more yards a game, at a better clip. | |||
| Protection | 11 sacks allowed, 48 yds (10th fewest) | 15 sacks allowed, 110 yds (21st) | Patriots |
| New England has been cleaner, but two starting guards are listed doubtful. | |||
| Pass rush and havoc | 14 sacks (18th) · 26 tackles for loss · 22 passes defended | 17 sacks (5th) · 33 tackles for loss · 22 passes defended | Bears |
| Chicago leads on sacks and TFL; the two are level on passes defended. Sweat and Odeyingbo are unavailable. | |||
| Takeaways | 7 (4 INT, 3 fumbles) · 13 giveaways (31st) · −6 | 9 (3 INT, 6 fumbles) · 11 giveaways · −2 | Bears |
| Both teams give it away too much; New England more, with Maye's 7 interceptions and 6 lost fumbles. | |||
| Third down | 40.5% (32 of 79) | 45.5% (40 of 88), 6th | Bears |
| Chicago converts five points more often. | |||
| Red zone TD % | 55.6% | 50.0% | Patriots |
| New England finishes a little better inside the 20. | |||
| Special teams | Borregales 8/10 · Wishnowsky 40.7 net | Santos 8/11 · Taylor 43.2 net | Even |
| Kickers level, Chicago's punter slightly better; returns are a wash. | |||
Points scored and allowed summed from the six ESPN results for each team (weeks 1–6); rushing per carry computed from ESPN yards and attempts; ranks computed across all 32 teams from ESPN 2026 team statistics, fetched Oct 21. Punting net from ESPN player statistics.